• Historic Downturn Spurs New Strategies: As the Great Freight Recession 2025 drags into a third year, truckload carriers are slashing costs and rightsizing capacity to survive the most prolonged freight downturn on record.
• Glimmers of a Market Rebound: Spot rates may have finally bottomed out, and fleet failures are slowly rebalancing supply – positioning savvy operators to capitalize when freight demand recovers.
• Navigating Tariff Turmoil: New trade tariffs and rising costs add pressure, but well-managed fleets are adapting with creative tactics to weather the storm.

Truckload spot rates have finally found a floor after two years of decline. Thirteen quarters of weak freight demand have rewritten carrier playbooks.

The U.S. freight industry remains mired in an unprecedented downturn in 2025. After a pandemic boom and bust, trucking has endured 13 straight quarters of soft demand, low rates, and high costs. This “Great Freight Recession” is defined not by a dramatic crash, but by its grinding duration. Excess capacity from the 2021 boom has kept spot rates depressed, operating costs (fuel, equipment, insurance) remain elevated, and margins are razor-thin. While early 2025 brought hints of stabilization – spot volumes have ticked up and some rates are rising year-over-year – a robust recovery is elusive. This article examines current market conditions, mode-by-mode impacts, and strategies carriers are using to survive until freight markets truly turn the corner.

For more news and updates on the freight recession and its impact on the industry, check out this page.

TL/DR – Freight Segment Snapshots (2025)

Navigating the Great Freight Recession 2025

The Great Freight Recession 2025 marks the most prolonged modern freight downturn – stretching over three years of weak demand and low rates. After the frenetic upswing of 2020–21, the market fell into a protracted slump by mid-2022. “We’re all flabbergasted with how long this has lasted,” admitted one industry executive in early 2025. Unlike past freight recessions defined by sharp crashes, this one has been a drawn-out grind – a “slow tearing off of the band-aid” with freight tonnage declining about 8–9% (versus ~24% in the Great Recession of 2008–09).

Excess capacity is at the heart of the struggle. The pandemic boom lured thousands of new trucking entrants, creating a glut of trucks that has persisted even as freight volumes fell. Shippers now enjoy abundant capacity and bargaining power, keeping contract rates in check. Spot market opportunities dried up for small carriers: those who rely on load boards “have been taking a bath” the past few years, as an ATRI analyst noted. With insurance premiums, driver pay, and equipment costs still elevated, many truckers face a margin squeeze. The result is an industry in survival mode – marked by carrier bankruptcies, fleet consolidations, and aggressive cost-cutting – until demand and supply regain equilibrium.

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Yet by early 2025, there are glimmers of hope. Freight volumes show signs of bottoming out, and excess trucks are finally leaving the market, inching the industry toward balance. As discussed below, spot rates have stabilized (even rising in some lanes), and leading indicators like tender rejection rates hint at nascent tightening. Still, any recovery remains fragile – economic headwinds and policy curveballs (from interest rates to import tariffs) continue to cloud the outlook. Carriers that endured this recession have done so by becoming leaner and more resilient. The following sections delve into freight demand and pricing trends, then explore how capacity and costs are being managed amid the Great Freight Recession 2025.

For additional insights into the challenges facing freight volumes in this downturn, explore this page.

Market Demand and Rate Trends in the Great Freight Recession 2025

Carrier failures are rising faster in 2025 than in any prior year of the downturn. Every bankrupt fleet tightens supply just a little more.

Even as the broader U.S. economy grew modestly in 2023–24, the freight sector lagged – essentially in its own freight recession. Consumer spending shifted from goods to services after the COVID-19 pandemic, while retailers found themselves overstocked, cutting back on new orders. This led to 13 consecutive quarters of weak freight demand, an unprecedented slump for trucking. By late 2024, key freight indices reflected the pain: contract truckload volumes had slipped, and spot market load postings plunged ~30% year-over-year at one point. “The trucking industry has been in a world of hurt for some time,” said ATRI’s Daniel Murray, emphasizing how small operators were hit hardest.

Encouragingly, early 2025 data suggest the worst may be over. American Trucking Associations reported a surprise 3% jump in its tonnage index in February 2025 – the most significant monthly increase in years. This index was also up slightly (0.6%) from a year prior, marking the second straight year-over-year gain. Similarly, spot freight volumes have shown steady improvement: after a brutal 2024 in which spot load posts fell ~30%, they were down only 7.3% year-over-year by Q4 2024 and essentially flat by January 2025.

In February, spot load postings were actually ~20% higher than the prior year, a clear sign that demand has begun to firm up. As ATA chief economist Bob Costello observed in March 2025, “the worst may be over” – freight volumes are no longer deteriorating and may finally be on an upswing.

For a closer look at recent spot market trends, check out this page.

Freight Demand & Rates in the Great Freight Recession 2025

Overcapacity—not demand—is the slow‑burn villain of this cycle. Truckload pricing won’t heal until the contract–spot gap closes.

Despite nascent volume gains, freight rates have yet to rebound meaningfully. Truckload pricing hit a floor in late 2024 and remains near multiyear lows. National dry van spot rates averaged roughly $1.95–$2.05 per mile in early 2025 – down over 70¢ from the 2021 peak. However, the free-fall has stopped: van and reefer spot prices in February 2025 were higher year-over-year for the first time in many months. For example, dry van spot averages (~$2.04/mi in Feb) had inched above their level a year prior.

Some lanes are even seeing a rebound; one central Northeast regional lane’s spot rate was ~12% higher than the prior year. This hints that pricing power may have bottomed out. As one analyst noted, the market in 2025 is likely to follow a gradual recovery curve rather than a rapid spike – “more like the 2013–2017 cycle than the rollercoaster of 2018–2022”.

Meanwhile, contract rates – which lag spot trends – have been steadier. Dry van contract rates hovered around $2.40–$2.45 per mile in early 2025, down only modestly (~3–5%) from a year earlier. Many large shippers locked in low contract prices during the downturn, and those agreements are holding. Contract and spot rates briefly converged in 2023’s weakness. Now the gap has widened again (contract ~$0.30–$0.40 above spot for vans), giving shippers continued savings on the spot market.

Linehaul spot vs. contract rate trends (dry van, 2022–2025). Contract rates (white line) remained flat year-over-year through early 2025, around $2.30/mile, while spot rates (yellow line) lingered near $1.80–$1.90/mile – slightly below year-ago levels. The persistent gap reflects the prolonged oversupply, though recent spot firming suggests the market may be at an inflection point.

Despite the sluggish rate environment, specific market indicators signal tightening. Tender rejection rates – the percentage of contract loads carriers turn down – have crept up from record lows. In late 2024, tender rejections rose above 6%, up from ~3.5% at the worst of the downturn. Even in early 2025, rejection rates remain higher than the prior two years’ levels, implying carriers have slightly more leverage to refuse cheap freight. This metric, along with rising spot prices, suggests that capacity is slowly tightening as weaker operators exit.

However, for now, the freight recession has essentially extended into 2025 – by mid-year, “transportation service providers [were] in no better position than 12 months ago,” as FreightWaves noted grimly. Any significant rate recovery likely hinges on further capacity contraction or a demand catalyst in the economy.

Spot vs. Contract Dynamics in the Great Freight Recession 2025

LTL carriers kept pricing power despite softer tonnage after Yellow’s exit.

The coexistence of low spot and contract rates has defined this downturn. Typically, spot market surges foreshadow contract rate increases, but in this cycle, spot and contract rates both fell in tandem throughout 2023. Shippers were able to rebid contracts lower and push more freight to the spot market, keeping both pricing streams soft. By late 2024, spot rates had slipped slightly below contract rates on average – an unusual inversion reflecting just how weak the spot market became. Many small fleets running spot loads were operating at or below their cost per mile.

In early 2025, a modest divergence reappeared: spot rates ticked up off the bottom, while contract prices plateaued. This created a wider gap “in favor of shippers,” as contract rates locked in earlier were higher than rock-bottom spot quotes. For instance, the average dry van contract rate in Feb 2025 was ~$2.43, versus ~$2.04 for spot – roughly a $0.39 spread. Such a gap incentivizes shippers to keep routing freight via the spot market or the cheapest contract carriers, prolonging the pressure on carriers’ yields.

Going forward, recent spot firming should gradually pull contract rates up – but only after sustained capacity tightness. Analysts expect contract rates to lag 1–2 quarters behind any spot uptrend. As of mid-2025, contract pricing remained essentially flat year-over-year, reflecting shippers’ continued upper hand in bid negotiations.

Intermodal Gains Amid the Great Freight Recession 2025

Intermodal rail is reclaiming long‑haul freight as low‑cost ‘rolling storage’.

One striking trend during this downturn is a structural shift of freight to intermodal and shorter hauls. With long-distance truckload rates depressed and fuel prices still relatively high, many shippers rediscovered intermodal (rail/truck) as a cost-saving option. By 2025, intermodal volumes were grabbing back some market share that trucking had taken during the 2020–21 capacity crunch. In fact, long-haul truckload demand has “collapsed – down 25% year-over-year” by early 2025, as more transcontinental loads move via rail. Abundant container capacity and improved service have made intermodal attractive; it’s easier to add containers than trucks, so intermodal rates fell quickly and undercut trucking on lanes over ~700 miles.

This modal shift has effectively transformed trucking’s role in some supply chains. Long-haul OTR trucking is now often the backup plan, while trucks are increasingly used for regional and final-mile moves. As FreightWaves observed, “trucking has become a short-haul delivery mechanism – the only option for that final leg” once goods move closer to consumers. Warehousing dynamics tie into this trend. Amid volatile global supply chains, importers began ordering inventory earlier and using warehouses to buffer uncertainty.

By late 2024, warehousing capacity had tightened and costs had risen due to this pull-forward strategy. In that environment, intermodal’s slower transit became an advantage – shippers treat containers en route as “rolling storage,” avoiding some warehouse costs. The upshot is that until truckload pricing power returns, rail and warehousing will continue playing larger roles. Trucking companies have had to adjust by focusing on shorter-haul freight, diversifying services, or even partnering with intermodal providers to retain volume during the Great Freight Recession 2025.

For more news and updates on intermodal shipping and its expanding role, check out this link.

Carrier Capacity & Costs in the Great Freight Recession 2025

Analysts warn: the next upcycle will reward those who stayed lean.

For carriers, survival in the Great Freight Recession 2025 has demanded tough decisions. The imbalance of too many trucks chasing too little freight has driven an industry shakeout. Thousands of small trucking businesses – especially single-truck operators and tiny fleets – have exited the market, unable to run profitably at prevailing spot rates. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration data shows operating authority revocations surged throughout 2023 and into 2024, far outpacing new entrants. By early 2025, the pace of carrier failures was 16% higher than the prior year’s already elevated level. This wave of exits, while painful, is slowly whittling down the glut of capacity that fueled the downturn.

For more industry news on how motor carriers are navigating these challenges, follow this link.

Larger carriers have not been immune either. Many big fleets downsized tractors or parked trucks to reduce capacity and cut costs. Some of the nation’s biggest trucking companies reported disappointing earnings during the downturn, highlighting how deep the margin pressure became. For example, in the first quarter of 2024, J.B. Hunt – normally a bellwether – missed profit estimates due to weak intermodal volumes, its largest segment. Knight-Swift, one of the biggest truckload carriers, slashed its earnings outlook by 58% for the first half of 2024 after a freight “bottom [that] has become longer and deeper than feared,” with management citing an oversupplied truck market and rate pressure from shippers.

An Evercore analyst noted Knight-Swift’s update was “worse than the worst case” and effectively reset the launch pad for a recovery much lower. These struggles were reflected across public carriers’ results: shares of JB Hunt and Knight fell ~8% and ~4% on their reports, and peers like Werner and ArcBest also declined on pessimistic outlooks. In analysts’ words, “there does not seem to be a catalyst” yet for a meaningful freight rebound.

Net trucking company exits soared during the freight recession. This chart shows carrier operating authority revocations outpacing new entrants at historic levels (2020–2025). In the first half of 2025, net revocations were ~16% higher than the same period in 2024, reflecting a continual shakeout of capacity as low rates and high costs drive small carriers out of business.

Carrier Exits and Oversupply Shakeout in the Great Freight Recession 2025

Tender rejection rates are inching up, hinting that capacity is tightening.

The capacity purge accelerated in late 2022 and 2023 as market conditions worsened. FMCSA data confirms that thousands more carriers have been revoking authority than obtaining it, especially in the back half of 2023 into 2024. Every month in 2024 saw a net decrease in for-hire trucking companies. December 2024, for instance, recorded the largest monthly net exit since the previous April, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. By the end of 2024, cumulative carrier exits had overtaken additions since 2020 – a stark reversal from the rapid carrier expansion of the pandemic years. In other words, the industry is finally contracting after the record startup boom of 2021.

For a deeper dive into freight trends from FTR Intelligence, follow this link.

Several factors forced this shakeout. Most apparent is the lack of profitability – with spot rates at unprofitable levels for many small operators, running under one’s own authority became unsustainable. Fuel, maintenance, and insurance costs didn’t drop as fast as freight rates, squeezing cash flow. Industry surveys indicate some owner-operators returned to company driver jobs or left trucking altogether when they couldn’t make payments. Preliminary labor data showed truckload payroll employment fell significantly in early 2024, suggesting larger fleets absorbed some drivers from failed micro-carriers.

Another catalyst was regulatory: in late 2024, the FMCSA began stricter enforcement (Clearinghouse drug/alcohol mandates, revoking CDLs for violations) that potentially sidelined tens of thousands of drivers. And in 2025, new “English proficiency” and anti-fraud measures for CDL holders were rolled out, further raising barriers to entry for marginal carriers. All these pressures contributed to an unprecedented wash-out of capacity.

For additional updates on FMCSA regulations and their impact on trucking, explore this link.

Paradoxically, this painful purge is what will ultimately cure the freight recession. As one market expert noted, every trucking downturn sows the seeds of the next upcycle – but only after enough capacity exits to tighten supply. The ongoing high rate of carrier failures suggests the market may be nearing that inflection. If demand even modestly picks up while capacity keeps shrinking, freight rates could finally inflect upward later in 2025. For now, larger carriers that survived are gaining slight pricing power as competition thins out. But until the overcapacity is thoroughly wrung out, carriers must continue operating efficiently to endure the tail end of the Great Freight Recession 2025.

Cost Inflation & Tariff Whiplash in the Great Freight Recession 2025

Analysts expect only a slow, methodical freight recovery extending into 2026. Resilience, not growth, is the real KPI of 2025.

While weak rates crimped revenue, inflationary costs have hit truckers from the other side. This has created a “stagflation” scenario for the industry – operating expenses rising even as freight prices stay flat. Insurance premiums have skyrocketed, driven by a wave of nuclear verdicts in accident lawsuits and a surge in cargo theft scams. The cost of parts and new equipment also remains high; trucks and trailers saw price hikes during supply chain disruptions, and now potential tariffs on imported truck components threaten to push costs up further.

For the latest shifts in national pricing trends, explore our dedicated Freight Rates coverage.

Driver wages have proved sticky as well. Even in a soft market, quality drivers are in short supply – carriers still report difficulty hiring long-haul drivers, forcing them to keep pay rates elevated. The latest ATRI data shows LTL carriers’ marginal costs (excluding fuel) jumped from $1.73 to $2.00 per mile in recent years, and many of the same cost pressures apply to truckload fleets.

On the flip side, one cost element has provided relief: fuel prices. Diesel, which spiked above $5/gallon in 2022, moderated to around $3.65–$3.70/gal nationally by early 2025. That’s about 40¢ cheaper than a year prior, easing fuel expenses and lowering fuel surcharges for shippers. This decline in fuel costs has been a rare bit of good news for carriers’ budgets. However, the return of higher maintenance costs partially offsets fuel’s benefit – many fleets deferred maintenance during the downturn, and as equipment ages, breakdowns can become costlier.

Diesel may be cheaper, but insurance, equipment, and labor costs stay elevated.

Another wildcard has been trade policy, which dealt the industry a late blow in this cycle. In 2025, the U.S. government enacted or proposed new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and others, reversing some tariff rollbacks from the prior administration. These duties immediately raised prices on a swath of goods. As ATA’s chief economist, Bur explains, roughly half of U.S. imports are intermediate goods (components and materials). Tariffs on those inputs drive up manufacturing costs, which in turn can dampen industrial output and freight volumes.

For in‑depth reporting on less‑than‑truckload carriers and network strategies, see the LTL sector news archive.

For trucking, the effects are felt across segments: higher prices for consumer goods can suppress retail freight demand; pricier construction materials may cool flatbed loads; and if domestic factories scale back due to costlier inputs, LTL shipments of parts and supplies will drop. This tariff-induced “whiplash” – coming just as the industry hoped for recovery – has undercut some of 2025’s early optimism. As one fleet executive noted, “if you take away what’s going on with tariffs…we are absolutely moving in the right direction” – implying that trade uncertainties are a key swing factor for 2025.

Beyond tariffs, regulatory and geopolitical curveballs have kept carriers on their toes. Uncertainties around environmental rules (like 2027 emission standards) and international events (e.g., war risks affecting fuel) mean carriers must be prepared for volatility. The consensus among industry analysts is that caution and adaptability will remain paramount in 2025. Carriers that endured this recession did so by cutting non-essential costs, refinancing equipment loans, and optimizing operations – essentially “playing defense” to preserve cash. As margins hopefully improve, those lessons learned will carry forward.

Tariff‑driven inventory surges lifted Q1, but demand has cooled again.

In summary, the Great Freight Recession of 2025 has tested the trucking industry’s resolve like never before. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Freight economists believe a supply-demand rebalancing is finally within sight – the ongoing exit of capacity sets the stage for healthier rates once demand normalizes. Already, some “green shoots” have appeared: key freight indexes turning favorable year-on-year, spot rates firming, and fleet sentiment improving from the depths of pessimism. Well-positioned carriers are cautiously optimistic that later in 2025, they will “start to feel better” as the shakeout takes hold.

Crucially, surviving fleets are not just waiting passively. They’re reinventing themselves – diversifying freight mix, investing in efficiency, and leveraging data to bid smarter. Many have adopted a mantra to “prepare to thrive” in any market environment. As one industry expert advised, carriers must avoid desperate moves that could undermine their long-term stability during this final phase of the recession. Instead, the focus should be on strategic resilience: shoring up finances, nurturing strong shipper relationships, and honing operations for the eventual rebound.

The timing of the recovery may be uncertain, but history suggests that when freight markets do turn, opportunities will abound for those who weathered the storm. By staying impartial, pragmatic, and proactive, trucking companies can make it through the Great Freight Recession 2025 – and be ready to prosper in the better days ahead.

Key Developments — Great Freight Recession 2025

• Spot‑rate floor found: National dry‑van spot rates stabilized near $2.00 / mile in early‑2025, ending a two‑year decline and hinting at a slow pricing rebound.
• Carrier exits accelerate: FMCSA data show net revocations of trucking authorities 16 % higher than 2024’s pace, steadily shrinking excess capacity.
• Contract–spot gap widens: Contract rates remain ∼$0.35 / mile above spot, preserving shippers’ leverage but setting the stage for late‑year contract catch‑up.
• Intermodal regains share: Long‑haul truckload demand fell ~25 % YoY as shippers shifted to rail‑based intermodal for cost savings and “rolling‑storage” inventory strategies.
• LTL pricing resilience: After Yellow’s 2023 collapse, surviving LTL carriers held firm on yield; revenue per hundredweight rose in high single digits despite tonnage softness.
• Cost pressures persist: Diesel eased to $3.60 / gal, but insurance, equipment, and labor costs remain elevated; margins stay razor‑thin for most fleets.
• Tariff whiplash: Pre‑tariff inventory pull‑forward briefly boosted Q1 volumes, but new duties on Chinese and Mexican goods now weigh on freight demand.
• Tender rejections inch up: OTRI moved off record lows—small but sustained increases confirm capacity is tightening as fleets downsize.
• Warehouse rents climb: Limited vacancy and high rents push shippers to use intermodal transit as rolling storage, extending freight cycle times.
• Cautious 2025 outlook: Analysts (FTR, ACT Research, DAT) expect modest spot and contract rate gains in H2 2025, with a more meaningful recovery likely in 2026 if demand improves and capacity exits continue.

Deeper Data & Independent Insights on the Great Freight Recession 2025

• Track weekly diesel price movements and surcharge benchmarks at the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Diesel Fuel Update dashboard.
• Explore contract‑versus‑spot pricing analytics in the DAT Freight & Analytics Trendlines report.
• Analyze multimodal shipment volumes and expenditures via the Cass Freight Index.
• Access quarterly freight equipment outlooks in the ACT Research commercial‑vehicle reports.
• Consult official carrier‑revocation statistics on the FMCSA Safety Measurement System portal.
• Monitor trucking‑industry payroll trends in the Bureau of Labor Statistics motor‑freight data series.
• Gauge consumer spending sentiment that drives freight demand through the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers index.
• Compare intermodal container traffic figures at the Association of American Railroads rail‑traffic database.